Economic Data Report: GDP
Growth Downshifts but Remains Positive
Written by Jonnathan Handshoe, Investment Analyst, on February 20, 2026- Real GDP grew 1.4% in Q4, down from 4.4% in Q3 and below expectations
- Consumer spending remained the main growth driver but lost momentum
- Federal spending fell sharply after government shutdown and exports softened
- Full-year 2025 growth of about 2.2% marks a step down from 2024’s 2.8%
Real GDP grew at a 1.4% annualized pace in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3 but still indicating expansion. Consumer spending and business investment, especially in healthcare and intellectual property, supported growth. A sharp decline in federal spending from the prolonged fall shutdown reduced GDP by about 1.1–1.2 percentage points, and the net trade balance also weighed on growth after one-off silver transactions were excluded. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 2.4%, while full-year GDP slowed to 2.2% from 2.8% in 2024.
Jonnathan Handshoe Investment Analyst
Jonnathan Handshoe is an investment analyst at United Community, where he leads due diligence and ongoing oversight of ETFs, mutual funds, and SMA managers. He regularly presents to the Asset Management Council and drives research initiatives that support portfolio construction and manager selection across the organization. Before joining United, Jonnathan was an equity research analyst at CFRA Research, covering more than 40 public companies across the oil & gas and passenger airlines sectors. He developed thesis-driven views supported by detailed financial modeling and published frequent research notes and thematic research reports. Previously, he served as a mortgage underwriter at CIVIC Financial Services, focusing on real estate investment loans. His earlier experience includes credit and operations roles at Lima One Capital and ScanSource, where he analyzed borrower portfolios and supported senior leadership in credit decisions. Prior to joining the financial and investment services industry, Jonnathan began his career in the United States Marine Corps, serving for a decade and deploying to Helmand Province, Afghanistan, where he led teams and supported mission-critical operations. He holds an M.S. in finance from the University of Notre Dame, an MBA from The College of William & Mary, and a B.S. in business administration with a concentration in economics and finance from the University of South Carolina Upstate.
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This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sources:
GDP – Bureau of Economic Analysis
Employment & Inflation – Bureau of Labor Statistics
Interest Rates – Federal Reserve
P/E S&P 500 – multpl.com
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