Economic Data Report: FOMC Update
Rates Remain Unchanged Amid Oil Shock
Written by Jonnathan Handshoe, Investment Analyst, on March 18, 2026- Fed keeps the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%
- Fed dot plot remains unchanged, with one possible rate cut penciled in for 2026
- February headline CPI stalls at 2.4% Y/Y, keeping price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target
- Oil shock from Iran conflict adds upside risk to prices and policy
The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March meeting, pausing again as sticky prices and new geopolitical conflict complicates its path forward. February headline inflation stalled at 2.4% year-over-year with core inflation (excludes food and energy) unchanged at 2.5%, showing that underlying inflation remains stubborn. Furthermore, the recent crude oil spike tied to the Iran conflict threatens to place upward pressure on consumer prices. Given these fresh upside risks, the Fed made it clear they need much more convincing data before resuming rate cuts.
Jonnathan Handshoe Investment Analyst
Jonnathan Handshoe is an investment analyst at United Community, where he leads due diligence and ongoing oversight of ETFs, mutual funds, and SMA managers. He regularly presents to the Asset Management Council and drives research initiatives that support portfolio construction and manager selection across the organization. Before joining United, Jonnathan was an equity research analyst at CFRA Research, covering more than 40 public companies across the oil & gas and passenger airlines sectors. He developed thesis-driven views supported by detailed financial modeling and published frequent research notes and thematic research reports. Previously, he served as a mortgage underwriter at CIVIC Financial Services, focusing on real estate investment loans. His earlier experience includes credit and operations roles at Lima One Capital and ScanSource, where he analyzed borrower portfolios and supported senior leadership in credit decisions. Prior to joining the financial and investment services industry, Jonnathan began his career in the United States Marine Corps, serving for a decade and deploying to Helmand Province, Afghanistan, where he led teams and supported mission-critical operations. He holds an M.S. in finance from the University of Notre Dame, an MBA from The College of William & Mary, and a B.S. in business administration with a concentration in economics and finance from the University of South Carolina Upstate.
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This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sources:
GDP – Bureau of Economic Analysis
Employment & Inflation – Bureau of Labor Statistics
Interest Rates – Federal Reserve
P/E S&P 500 – multpl.com
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